2018 Belmont Stakes Preview with Odds and Picks

By Noah Davis
Published on June 08, 2018
Belmont Stakes 2018

Horse racing fans finally get to find out if history will be made again this Saturday when the 2018 Belmont Stakes takes center stage at Belmont Park.

There is no absurd 37-year drought to be snapped here, of course.

American Pharoah made sure of that in 2015, so if Justify makes good on his favorite label, he鈥檒l be handing the horse racing world a Triple Crown champion for the second time in the last four attempts.

Bob Baffert is back with his favored (and undefeated) gem to make sure that happens. He鈥檚 won here twice before and most recently pushed American Pharoah to god status.

Whether Baffert鈥檚 latest colt can get the job done after securing wins at the Kentucky Derby and Preakness Stakes, however, remains to be determined.

All odds that are referenced in this article were taken from Bovada on 6/6/2018. These odds may have changed since the time of this writing.

Post Draw Results

Winning won鈥檛 exactly be easy for Justify, especially if you ask Bob Baffert, who has been publicly anxious about a #1 post draw.

The spots were made official for all 10 horses on Tuesday night, and the field is finally set going into June 9th鈥檚 massive event.

  • Justify
  • Free Drop Billy
  • Bravazo
  • Hofburg
  • Restoring Hope
  • Gronkowski
  • Tenfold
  • Vino Rosso
  • Noble Indy
  • Blended Citizen

Despite Baffert鈥檚 anxiety over Justify鈥檚 starting spot, the #1 post draw has actually been very successful at the Belmont Stakes.

In fact, it leads the way with 23 wins in this event, with five of those winners actually securing Triple Crown sweeps.

Considering Justify is vying to be just the 13th ever Triple Crown champion, that could actually be pretty telling.

Recent history hasn鈥檛 been so kind to the #1 post draw, though. The last winner from that spot came in from Touch Gold in 1997.

As for other post draws, recent history may favor Tenfold and Noble Indy.

The 7th post draw has secured three Belmont Stakes wins since 2007, and the 9th spot has nabbed three since 1998.

It鈥檚 pretty arguable post draw is relatively meaningless in the end, however.

There are just 10 horses for bettors to look at, and while some horses can be hedged off on the outside or pinned down on the inside, this post draw leaves things fairly wide open.

Instead of putting too much focus on where horses start, bettors should pay more attention to their talent and past production against high-level competition.

2018 Belmont Stakes Odds

Justify opened as the tentative favorite going into the Kentucky Derby, and anyone that didn鈥檛 hop on Bob Baffert鈥檚 gem at that point lost out on some serious value.

His price rose significantly going into the Preakness, but now bettors find themselves somewhere in the middle with a -125 price at Bovada and other Belmont Stakes betting sites.

It may come down to personal preference or if you can locate another horse you think can seriously challenge Justify.

Either way, here鈥檚 the latest 2018 Belmont Stakes odds, per Bovada.

Justify-125
Hofburg+450
Bravazo+750
Vino Rosso+900
Tenfold+1000
Blended Citizen+2000
Gronkowski+2500
Restoring Hope+3300
Noble Indy+3300
Free Drop Billy+6600

Justify is again the clear favorite, and nobody is particularly close. Hofburg pulls into second and is seen as a legit threat by many.

Bravazo, Vino Rosso, and Tenfold round out the most realistic threats, with everyone else classifying as a sleeper or long shot.

The question, though, may be which challenger leads the way ahead of the rest right behind Justify.

Top Challenger – Bravazo

It鈥檚 easy to see why bettors should have some interest in Bravazo. Not only did he give Justify a nice run late at the Preakness Stakes, but he was a respectable 6th at the Kentucky Derby as well.

On top of that, this Calumet Farm product has three wins, including one at the Risen Star event this year.

Beyond past production and solid runs in elite events, the main draw is that he鈥檚 getting better.

He鈥檚 still come up short two times in a row behind Justify, but could this underrated horse be inching closer to the most important victory of all?

Top Sleeper – Blended Citizen

I love Blended Citizen鈥檚 value at +2000, but this has been a very experienced and competitive horse that many view as a viable sleeper.

A win at the 2017 Peter Pan run is a nice feather in his cap, while he stole the show at the Jeff Ruby Steaks and was solid (5th) at the Blue Grass Stakes.

This is another horse that seems to be rounding into form, while he鈥檚 the only horse in this event that has actually won at Belmont Park.

He鈥檚 also displayed blazing speed at times, so if he doesn鈥檛 get lost in the shuffle early – and heck, maybe even if he does – there鈥檚 a chance he could surge late and make a run for it.

Top Long Shot – Free Drop Billy

He has the best odds (+6600) of the entire group, yet he鈥檚 actually got some solid arguments in his favor.

Not only did he best Bravazo at the Breeders鈥?Futurity, but he鈥檚 had strong showings at the Holy Bull (2nd) and Blue Grass Stakes (3rd).

A dreadful 16th-place run at the Kentucky Derby has killed his momentum, but after taking the Preakness off, Free Drop Billy is well rested and ready to pitch the upset.

Will Justify Win the Triple Crown?

You can go back and forth in this field, as it does have some talent and some elite trainer/owner history.

Todd Pletcher, Calumet Farm, and of course Bob Baffert are the big names touching down at Belmont Park on Saturday, but no matter how you slice it, Justify still feels like the best horse in this race.

Link to the other Belmont Stakes post that will have been published by the time this one goes up.

There are two HUGE reasons why I can鈥檛 see beyond Justify going into the 2018 Belmont Stakes.

One is the fact that Bob Baffert was literally here in 2015 and sealed the deal despite immense pressure and history ready to deny him.

The other is the fact that Justify hasn鈥檛 even run his best race in the Triple Crown to this point, yet here he is, undefeated and ready to chase a Triple Crown title.

This field is good, but it鈥檚 not anything Justify hasn鈥檛 taken down, and when there is history in sight, it鈥檚 simply too much fun to not chase it.

If you need one more reason to get you on Justify, consider the odds. This -125 price doesn鈥檛 return INSANE value it, but it鈥檚 a pretty nice price for what figures to be a very heavy favorite.

I don鈥檛 mind a couple flier bets on your favorite challenger, sleeper, or long shot, but I鈥檇 go hardest at Justify.

PICKJustify-125
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2018 Belmont Stakes Preview with Odds and Picks
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2018 Belmont Stakes Preview with Odds and Picks
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Here we give you a preview of the 2018 Belmont Stakes with a look at final post draw, odds, and how the third leg of the Triple Crown could unfold.
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