Possible Upsets to Target in the Week of September 17th
Published on September 18, 2018
It was another productive week calling some upsets in the sports betting world.
I told my loyal readers that things would get a lot more interesting once the 2018 NFL season rolled around, and while that doesn鈥檛 exactly hand out any guarantees, I did deliver last week.
It鈥檚 not just about pro football, either. There is always going to be the opportunity to maximize underdog value, no matter the sport you prefer to dabble in.
Right now, the NFL is a great spot to maximize earnings potential, however. It鈥檚 still wise to target favorites in the right setting and grind your way to profit, but this is a volatile sport that gives way to a lot of upside.
I already locked into that upside in week two in an effort to add onto my 36-51-2 upset picks record. I saw serious value in both the Colts (+200) and Chiefs (+200) as big road underdogs and pounced.
Both teams scored week two wins, so right there alone you came out of last week a big winner if you rolled with my underdog picks.
Let鈥檚 take a look at how I did last week as a whole.
I鈥檒l take a 3-2 record any day of the week, and that gets me going in the right direction again, boosting my season upset picks mark to 39-53-2.
The G-Men couldn鈥檛 protect Eli Manning and kept me from going a perfect 3-0 last week with my NFL upset picks, but I still came out on top. Calgary scored a win over Hamilton, so I went 3-1 overall on the gridiron.
The Rockies didn鈥檛 really come close to converting their +107 price tag, but they were a worthy try in their home park.
I certainly am not disappointed with last week鈥檚 results. Hopefully you were on some of those winners with me, and the aim is to keep the positive momentum rolling into the new week. Let鈥檚 dive in.
After enjoying some success with a couple of NFL underdog picks in week two, I鈥檓 raring to go back to the well in week three. You do have to pick your spots, of course, as I don鈥檛 see quite as many tempting spots this time around.
One that is interesting goes down in Baltimore, where the 1-1 Ravens will play host to the undefeated Broncos. Denver has relied on clutch play thus far from new quarterback Case Keenum but also has the defense and running game to get a win here and move to 3-0.
The Ravens housed the Bills (not much of an accomplishment) and then didn鈥檛 really impress in a loss to the Bengals on Thursday night.
Vegas likes the Ravens at home here, but their defense might have gotten exposed against Cincinnati. A similarly talented Denver passing game could use that game as a blueprint to control this one. At a cool +195, I鈥檓 not about to bet against a Broncos team that has yet to lose in 2018.
Miami is oddly enough another team that enters week three at a perfect 2-0, and they鈥檒l be playing host to Jon Gruden and the Raiders.
Oakland is on the reverse side of things, as they fell apart in the second half of week one and lost a tense week two tilt to Denver in the final moments.
I actually think Gruden is doing a fine job fielding a competitive team, but the Raiders have dealt with some bad decisions, penalties, and ultimately some bad luck.
Gruden鈥檚 struggles to begin his return to the league are well documented these days, but eventually, he鈥檚 going to get that elusive first win.
Considering I鈥檓 not a big believer in the fish just yet, this looks like a solid spot to shoot for the Silver and Black getting off the schneid. We know Derek Carr is talented, and he鈥檚 got a solid supporting cast around him. In what could be a shootout, I鈥檒l take the Raiders by a hair.
The Red Sox have the AL East and the top seed in baseball locked up, so I get that they could be resting guys down the stretch. They鈥檙e also on the road in Yankee Stadium.
These things are true, but they still want to win games and stay in a groove. This is a rivalry, after all, while Boston also is the best team in the majors and more specifically is better than New York.
It鈥檚 rare you get the Sox at +127, so I鈥檓 hopping all over them for Tuesday night鈥檚 tilt in New York.
Another MLB game I liked for Tuesday is the Cards in ATL taking on the Braves.
The Cardinals have a lot more riding on this game and this series, so I feel compelled to look their way. This sweet price gives me an added boost, while I鈥檓 not particularly worried about a showdown with Anibal Sanchez.
Sanchez has admittedly been much better than usual in 2018, but he鈥檚 still a pitcher a talented Cardinals offense could get to. In what should be a low-scoring affair, the Cards have a shot to return solid value as they keep inching toward that wild card game.
I know I鈥檓 keeping it light with about four upset picks a week, but that鈥檚 to express two harsh realities in the world of sports betting: there aren鈥檛 always a long line of underdogs worth targeting, and it鈥檚 often wise to narrow down your options so that you only bet hard on wagers you feel very strongly about.
That鈥檚 especially the case when it comes to underdogs. Vegas prices these upsets a certain way to provide incentive but also because that鈥檚 how they figure the public will view matchups and potentially bet.
Any game can bounce any way, but typically, if you鈥檙e going against a favorite, you鈥檙e assuming some very real risk.
That鈥檚 not different with my four upset picks this week, but I do like the value and the possibility of a few of these (if not all of them) converting.
My path to +.500 upset picks continues this week. Whether you join me or not, I wish you luck. Happy betting, and enjoy the games!